Big Blue: Schlumberger 2016 Q2 Comments and more

Big-Blue-Schlumberger-Q2-2016-Comments-And-More

by Matt Johnson

Last week we covered Halliburton’s (HAL: $43.21) Q2 results and we’ll follow up this week with a similar look into Schlumberger’s (SLB: $81.16) second quarter.

Primary visions database is hyper-focused on frac data, so its important to note that while our comments are about their entire Q2 results our data features SLB’s U.S. pressure pumping activities.

The Good – SLB approved dividends of .50c per share and maintains a positive outlook that we’re at the bottom of a downward cycle.  SLB is the worlds largest oilfield service provider, however they are the second most prolific pressure pumper in the U.S. when analyzing active spreads and total frac jobs. CapEx is expected to stay unchanged at $2.2b. SLB has been aggressive in keeping its margins stable vs. the competition and continues to renegotiate long-term contracts that aren’t financially viable.  Asking never hurts.

WATER VOLUME – SLB was #3 in water usage in 2013, #2 in 2014 and 2015, and so far remains in the #2 spot in 2016.

PROPPANT MASS – SLB was #4 in proppant mass in 2013, #3 in 2014 and #4 in 2015. 2016 is a bit muddy right now, no pun intended, as HAL maintains the #1 spot, yet 2nd through 5th place are tight. We’re paying close attention to this as our clients are hungry for proppant data.

TOTAL NUMBER OF FRAC JOBS – In 2015, SLB firmly held 3rd position with over 1,300 frac jobs. So far in 2016 they have moved up a spot to #2.  See this chart below that highlights SLBs total frac jobs in the last five quarters.

FSC comparision Chart for SLB

The Bad – SLB suffered Year over Year declines in revenue and net income as the demand for pressure pumping activities contracted.  They suffered impairments of almost $2b and restructuring charges totaling $646mm.

The Ugly – SLB continued to reduce their workforce by 16,000 people through the first half of 2016 which is a total reduction of 40% since 2014. SLB is on pace to have its lowest year of revenues in the last six years.

The two charts below highlight SLB’s frac jobs and spreads, which are great activity metrics.

FSC month by month Chart for SLB

Note: The Q2 2016 data is incomplete as there is a lag in the data of ~100 days

SLB Forecasting Chart

Note: There is a lag in the data of about ~100 days. We continue to capture new data every single day (Running Frac Spreads = blue) and compliment the data lag with our custom forecasting algorithm (Forecast = orange). If you click on the chart you will better be able to see the chart labels.

Interested in learning more about the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count or what a frac spread is? More information here.

Completing the merger with strategic partner Cameron

SLB merged with a powerful ally in oil and gas equipment manufacturing last year in Cameron.  The realization of this sale was completed in the second quarter of 2016.  Cameron “is a leading provider of flow equipment products, systems and services” to oil and gas and will help move SLB into the next generation of completion and production services.  Cameron already had a strategic alliance with SLB and looks to strengthen that bond to SLBs core business as the companies integrate with one another through the rest of 2016.

Baker Hughes (BHI: $44.07) results are expected this Thursday and will be featured in our next blog.

sources
ReutersSchlumberger posts unadjusted Q2 loss, cut another 8K jobs
Carl Surran of Seeking AlphaSchlumberger posts unadjusted Q2 loss, cut another 8K jobs
Zacks.com from NasdaqSchlumberger (SLB) Q2 Earnings Fall Y/Y on Weak Activity
Liam Denning of BloombergFor Oil’s Future, See Schlumberger

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

Frac Spread Count 2.0 – June 2016

PVFSC-6-6-2016

click on the image above to see it in full size

by Jake Stevens

Have you prepared for the inevitable?

While a lot of focus is on permits and even the rig count over the last 30 or 40 years, we’ve been distributing a new metric that propelled Primary Vision into the mainstream in the summer of 2015, one we believe is the most important metric of frac activity.  We call it the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count (I might refer to it as the PVFSC or the FSC for the rest of this blog).

A quick summary of what the PVFSC is.  Simply put its a metric for the highest daily value of active frac spreads for a given week.

Ok great, but what exactly is a frac spread.  Well, lets start telling you what it isn’t.  It has nothing directly to do with natural gas prices (the crack spread), natural gas refiners (the fractionation spread) or the value gained from the sale of any natural gas liquid.

Primary Vision knows the who (pressure pumper), where, when, how many, and in most cases what the service providers are pumping, but it doesn’t stop there. We also know for what operators they are pumping for.

To summarize for every frac spread we know the following:

1) Days Active
2) Location
3) Pressure Pumper
4) Operator
5) Volumes of water, proppant, chemicals pumped

This allows us to know the number of active fleets on a given day and allows for the creation of the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count.

We give away for free, updated every week ,the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count National number.  This you can find here. Its updated by 10am every Friday.  Sign up for the free national report and you’ll get an email sent out weekly that includes the historical frac spread data plus the frac spread data for the previous week.  Use the chart and the data as you wish, all we’re asking is that you source us when using the data/image in a commercial capacity.

Its free, and yes you can get started today.

In a few days we’ll highlight what you get with the paid subscription for the Primary Vision Granular Frac Spread Count or you can reach out to us at info@pvmic.com to learn more.

 

July ReFrac Report – Permian Basin Style

July Update

Primary Vision has been working hard to improve our ReFrac report offering.  We’ve added some additional charts for you focused on the Permian Basin, changed some charts that were hard to read, added a printable version, upgraded our delivery method from an attachment to a link, etc. etc.  A lot of changes that required a lot of testing and we’re not gonna stop there.  Look for us to add in additional analytics, chemicals and production before the end of the year.

Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 6.32.07 PM

Refrac’ed Wells from 2011-2015 Year To Date

side note: We’re also looking to add an account based system as well as additional reports (hint: Frac Fleet report)

In addition to our reports, we’re going to soon be adding production data, additional completions data and making our trek to the great white north (yes, Canada)!  All a part of the continued evolution of our comprehensive U.S. frac data products.

Survey Forthcoming

Some time this week we’re going to release a survey on our refrac report and a bit about what’s important to you frac data-wise.  Should be super easy, ten questions or less.  Thanks in advance!

Shameless Plugging

Still thinking about ordering our Granular ReFrac Report?  Get July’s instantly and be setup for August where we’ll focus on the Barnett and maybe one additional surprise. You’ll have to subscribe to find out!

How to Subscribe:

You can order here for just $99 (or jump on our soon to change yearly pricing of $899) that is packed with 30+ pages of information including…
Number of ReFrac’ed Wells by Quarter, Region, Orientation and Trajectory
– 
Updated from June!
ReFrac’ed Wells by Year by Top 10 Operator (ALL and HZ wells separately)
– Updated from June!

ReFrac’ed Wells by Year by Service Company (ALL and HZ wells separately)
– Updated from June!

Average Proppant Mass by Proppant Type (ALL and HZ wells separately)
– Updated from June!

ReFrac’ed Wells by Year by Proppant Type (ALL and HZ wells separately)
– Updated from June!

Proppant Mass Comparison Between Original and Second Frac (ALL and HZ wells separately)
- Updated from June!
Heat maps for Re’Frac wells for each year
- Updated from June!
Additionally we drilled down into the Permian Basin in July, so additional slides focused on that region are included.

Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 6.28.58 PM

2011-2015 Permian Basin Heat Map of refracs

Summer is half way over, get outside!

Primary Vision Team

2014 – Q4 Shows 6% Increase In Frac Water Volume Over Previous Quarter. Feb 2015 Primary Vision US Frac Water Index Update

We saw a 6% increase in 2014 – Q4 over 2014 – Q3 in average frac water volumes. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues with recent oil price declines.

Here is the latest update to the Primary Vision US Frac Water Index. You will notice some slight differences from last time we published. We have updated our methodology to give a more accurate representation of average frac water volumes in the region.

Quarter    Index
2011-Q1    100.0
2011-Q2    97.3
2011-Q3    98.4
2011-Q4    93.1
2012-Q1    89.4
2012-Q2    89.5
2012-Q3    87.6
2012-Q4    96.2
2013-Q1    101.5
2013-Q2    103.4
2013-Q3    108.7
2013-Q4    117.1
2014-Q1    129.6
2014-Q2    140.1
2014-Q3    147.9
2014-Q4    156.4

Frac Water Trends in the United States

Frac Water Trends in the United States

Have questions about our methodology or about Primary Vision’s products and services? Reach out to us here: info@pvmic.com and one of our advisors will reach back to you.