Halliburton’s Frac’ing Surge Is Bigger Than Reported

        On March 6, 2018, Seeking Alpha reported that Halliburton’s frac’ing fleet was surging across the country.  This is, of course, a great news story for the American oil and gas industry.  The U.S. government’s statistical agency expects both oil and gas to hit record levels of production in 2018, and almost all of the growth is coming from frac’ing.  Halliburton is a huge part of this, though there is some disagreement over just how fast Halliburton is ramping up.

Who Knows What Halliburton is Doing?

        Halliburton has a strong foothold on fracturing services in the United States (see information box below).  They’re required by law to make some disclosures, but the company is not in the business of publicizing all of its work.  As a result, industry watchers are left to make their best estimates about what Halliburton is doing.

Q1-2017

- HAL Market Share by Frac Job: 28%
- HAL Market Share by Active Spreads: 18%
Q2-2017

- HAL Market Share by Frac Job: 27%
- HAL Market Share by Active Spreads: 20%

Q3-2017

- HAL Market Share by Frac Job: 28%
- HAL Market Share by Active Spreads: 20%

Q4-2017*

- HAL Market Share by Frac Job: 28%
- HAL Market Share by Active Spreads: 20%

*data incomplete

 Our company, Primary Vision, uses sophisticated analytics to project real-time data
 on active frac’ing operations from lagging data sets.

        The article states that Halliburton grew its frac’ing fleet by 700,000 horsepower in 2017, giving it a total of more than four million horsepower of frac’ing equipment under its control.  The information in that article was supplied by Rystad, a Norwegian based company that offers consulting services and business intelligence to the oil and gas space.

        We have a slightly different view. Primary Vision estimates that Halliburton currently has 115-120 marketed frac’ing operations, called frac spreads as of the writing of this blog.  Each spread is powered by roughly 36,000 horsepower of pumping equipment and also contains other necessary equipment, like data trucks, storage tanks, and frac’ing fluid blenders.  Our estimates of both Halliburton’s active (108) and marketed spread count (115-120) ramped up much faster than others.  We think the company actually increased its fleet operations over the course of 2017 by about 1.2 million horsepower, not 700,000.

helpful definitions…

Frac Spread –  A frac spread (or sometimes referred to as a frac fleet)is a set number of equipment that a pressure pumper (oil field servicecompany) uses for hydraulic fracturing.

This includes a combination of fracturing pumps (also referred to as frac pumps and/or pumping units), data trucks, storage tanks, chemical additive and hydration units, blenders and other equipment needed to perform a frac stimulation.

Active Spread – Equipment that a pressure pumper has working or active in the field. 

Marketed Spread – Equipment that a pressure pumper has ready to work and available to work but might be in transition or in process of being deployed.

        We estimate that Halliburton went from 72 to 108 active spreads between the first and third quarters of 2017.  This run up, coincidentally or not, correlates closely with a March 2017 announcement that two competing frac’ing companies, Schlumberger and Weatherford, were going to create a joint venture called “OneStim.”  That idea was abandoned at the end of 2017, with Schlumberger instead simply buying Weatherford’s assets.

Where is the Extra Capacity Coming From?

        One unique strength of Halliburton is that the company manufactures its own frac’ing pumps.  The latest and greatest version is the Q10 pump, which is the centerpiece of the company’s “Frac of the Future” system.  Halliburton reportedly began replacing its pumps with Q10s in 2013.  When oil prices really began to crash in 2014 the company appears to have accelerated its retirement of the older pumping systems.  The company said some of its older equipment was being retired permanently while other equipment was being “cold-stacked” and could be brought back into service later.  In 2016, then CEO Dave Lesar, (he retired on June 1st of 2017 and was replaced by Jeff Miller) said that if the market ever turned around, Halliburton would have “multiple levers” it could pull, including accelerating the manufacturing and deployment of the Q10s and presumably also reactivating some of its older equipment (ie. Grizzly™ pumps).

        We believe that Halliburton has activated more of the old equipment than other analysts are assuming.  These assets were quickly deployed in response to both improved market conditions and presumably also the threat of competition from the likes of OneStim, other competitors as well as new entries such as Pro Frac, and Alamo Pressure Pumping.  As a result, Halliburton’s industry-leading frac’ing fleet contains a mix of both new and old pumps.  We estimate that Halliburton has approximately 4.2 million horsepower marketed.

Looking for data like this?

        Many businesses need to know exactly how much frac’ing is happening in the U.S. and Canda.  Primary vision’s flagship product, the Frac Spread Count, provides both high-level aggregations of industry-wide data and detailed information on each service provider’s activity in each region.  Our Frac Spread Count has grown in popularity since its inception in 2013.

Learn more:

http://www.pvmic.com/frac-spread-count

http://www.fracspreadcount.com/

contact Primary Vision directly: info@pvmic.com

Winter Has Been a Time for Frac’ing

    Primary Vision has just released the Winter Update to its flagship Frac Spread Count Report.  Many casual industry observers are familiar with the Baker Hughes count of active drilling rigs, but we believe it is just as important to track the number of active hydraulic fracturing operations, known as frac spreads.  These frac spreads are units made up of fracturing pumps, data trucks, storage tanks, chemical additive units, hydration units, and blenders.  We use cutting edge technology to tell our customers how many frac spreads are operating across the industry, along with granular data on each company in each shale play.

High Oil Prices Help North America Too

    The Winter Update validates our previous predictions that, at least in a number of key basins, the industry is focusing on completing already-drilled wells.  The drilled, yet uncompleted, wells are called “DUCS.”  Many analysts have taken to calling America’s DUCS the “fracklog.”  This abundance of pre-drilled wells allows American producers to ramp up production quickly if (and when) OPEC tries to drive up prices.

    Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the number of DUCS at a record 7,483.  Saudi Arabia is seeking to open its state oil company up to investors by the end of 2018, and it needs a high oil price to get the best possible deal.  To that end, the Saudis have been doing their best to enforce production quotas on OPEC members.  We believe based on our research that the OPEC deal on quotas is likely to hold for longer than most in the industry assume.

    Rising oil prices have a very direct effect on the number of frac jobs completed each year.  The count of active frac spreads has risen only slightly, because the U.S. fleet is largely already deployed, but the number of frac jobs completed is rising.  27,838 frac jobs were completed in 2014 before oil prices collapsed, and then the number dropped to 16,930 in 2015 and appears to have bottomed out in 2016 at 9,650.  Activity has now turned around and in 2017, 11,826 frac jobs were completed as of the writing of this article (PV believes the total will be closer to 13,000 after all completion reports are filed). 2018 will continue the surge.

test-chart-29

More Frac’ing Than Drilling

    Most government and industry forecasts are overly focused on drilling and fail to properly account for completions.  Their data is also often based on information that is dreadfully out of date, as it can take months for well activity to be reported, if it is at all.  The EIA, for example, now estimates that U.S. crude will hit a record average of 10.6 million barrels per day in 2018 and gas will also hit a record of 80.3 billion cubic feet per day.  We believe these estimates fail to account for the near full deployment of frac spreads.

    Primary Vision continues to predict that companies will focus on DUCS, leading to more frac spreads than active drilling rigs in many regions.  For example, in the DJ Basin-Niobrara, active frac spreads surpassed drilling rigs in early 2017 and have maintained a steady lead.

test-chart-44

    Similar dynamics were at play in the Williston and Utica plays.  We also look for operators to further explore the Duvernay and Montney formations which seem oil-abundant in western Canada.

Get Your National Frac Spread Count Winter Update Today

    Our reports are trusted by companies large and small, as they are a unique source of both industry-wide frac’ing activity along with more detailed data focused on each company and each play.  Our proprietary system collects data from countless public and private sources and uses sophisticated techniques to produce real time frac spread counts from this sometimes dated and incomplete data.  We also have detailed data on water, proppant, and chemical usage.  Get in touch with us today to subscribe to our reports or just order a sample.

2017 Frac Maps – Canada

A couple weeks ago we released our U.S. Frac basin map for free.  You can get that one here.  This week, we’re releasing our Canada frac basin maps. Canada is rich in natural resources, but has experienced a painful decline in activity due to recent market conditions. In terms of spread activity we see the U.S. experiencing 10-1 the activity over Canada, however this could change as the market begins to recover over the next 12-18 months.

PV_only_NA__2014_Codrut1

Feel free to share this map, use it in a presentation or print it out!  Just make sure to source Primary Vision, Inc.

THE MOST RECENT OFFERING FROM US AT PRIMARY VISION IS THE FRAC SPREAD COUNT REPORT, WHICH OFFERS BOTH WEEKLY UPDATES ON PROJECTED ACTIVITY AND ACCESS TO OUR HISTORICAL DATA.  CUSTOMERS CAN GET THE INFORMATION IN TOP-LINE CHARTS THAT CAN BE EASILY DIGESTED OR THROUGH THE REAMS OF MORE GRANULAR DATA THAT WE ALSO SUPPLY.  YOU CAN SUBSCRIBE TO OUR REPORT AT WWW.FRACSPREADCOUNT.COM.  YOU CAN ALSO CONTACT AT INFO@PVMIC.COM FOR MORE INFORMATION OR A DEMONSTRATION ON HOW OUR PRODUCTS CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS.

 

 

Does #Exxon Know The Value of Its Assets?

by Matthew Johnson

In recent months, ExxonMobil has been under fire after investigative reporters claimed the oil and gas giant knew about risks associated with climate change since at least the 1970s and hid that knowledge from the public.  Leading environmental groups called for the company to be prosecuted the way tobacco companies were prosecuted for hiding Smoking risks.  Mainstream politicians like Hillary Clinton joined in and New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman launched an investigation.  In March 2016, attorneys general from 18 jurisdictions announced they are now part of his effort. In September 2016, the Wall Street Journal reported that AG Schneiderman had changed his aim and is now looking more closely at how Exxon values its assets.  The federal government has also launched a similar effort.

In addition to climate questions, the government wants to know if Exxon is hiding the damage it has suffered from low oil prices.  As our proprietary data shows, frac jobs decreased 50% from Q42015 to Q12015, and that foretold a corresponding drop in production and cash flow.  ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT PRIMARY VISION’S DATA FOCUSES ON NORTH AMERICAN FRAC’ING AND THE MAJORITY OF EXXON’S BUSINESS IS INTERNATIONAL/OFFSHORE.

The Good:

First off, ExxonMobil is a pillar of American industry that traces its lineage back to the Standard Oil Trust that dominated world oil markets in the late 1800s.  The company has survived a lot of legal issues in its past, and when crude markets rebalance (or if OPEC is able to boost oil prices) then Exxon’s troubles may disappear.
This particular controversy has to do with the process executives use to sign off on calling reserves “proven” after reviewing data from engineers, geophysicists, and geologists.  Dropping oil prices and costly regulations reduce the value of these “proven” resources.  Most companies will write down that lost value, but write-downs reduce profits.  Exxon is notorious for refusing write-downs.  Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson sees this aversion as a good part of the company’s culture.  He says it avoids write-downs by placing a high burden on executives to ensure that projects can work at low prices.  Those executives will not be “bailed out” by having their projects written down in a bad market.

One thing that helps make this strategy viable for Exxon is that its operations are heavily centered in areas that continue to be economic at current prices.  In particular, this means the Permian Basin in Texas, and through it subsidiary XTO Energy the company also reaches the Williston Basin in North Dakota.  Our data shows these to be the most popular locations for frac jobs in recent years.

The Bad:

The flip side here is that Exxon could be seen as lying about the cost of climate or its losses associated with low oil prices.  The company has outperformed many of its rivals since oil prices began to drop in 2014, but it has lost money in its U.S. drilling business for the past six quarters.  By failing to admit that their reserves had lost value, Exxon was able to report higher earnings than rivals that made significant write-downs.  Some may say the company inflated its earnings to boost its stock price.

The Ugly:

Exxon is now facing two different investigations with overlapping aims.  First, New York AG Schneiderman and his coalition are pursuing allegations of fraud related to climate change.  AG Schneiderman also appears to be independently reviewing Exxon’s practices related to writing down assets and accounting for the cost of climate change.  Second, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has now opened up an inquiry into the same issues of write-downs and climate accounting.

Conclusion:

Exxon has been on the attack against AG Schneiderman and what the company views as a politically-motivated attack, but Exxon has said the SEC is the “appropriate entity” to look into these matters.  Exxon is proud of its practices and it will likely hold up against government scrutiny as it has for decades.  History suggests commodity prices will rise again, and when they do Exxon’s troubles will seem minor.  Moreover, these investigations were just a chink in Exxon’s armor.  Stock prices took only a small dip after the SEC investigation was announced, and analysts like The Street Ratings still consider the stock a “hold” as the company is in a solid financial position despite weak cash flow and poor profit margins.

sources:

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

Pioneer’s A+ game might match OPEC

PXD-PVby Matthew Johnson

Recently, we reviewed some pressure pumpers and even took a stab at Eog Resources (EOG: $91), often called the Apple ($108.27) of U.S. shale.  If Eog Resources is the Apple of U.S. Shale then is Pioneer (PXD: $224) the Uber-equivalent?  Their CEO, Scott Sheffield, stated last week that their operating costs in the Permian Basin were close to $2 per BOE. Some have disputed this by looking deeper into their financials.  Let’s take a look at what we’re good at which is frac jobs and frac spreads.

We’ve reported 440 frac jobs since the beginning of 2015 running through Q1 2016.  PXD has shown a steady flow of work.

FSC Charts for PXD - comparisonFSC Charts for PXD - month by month

Pioneer is vertically integrated, so they do a lot of their own pressure pumping. However, we are tracking some activity with Halliburton (HAL: $43.84), Baker Hughes (BHI: $49.76) and Schlumberger (SLB: $81.20) in the last 18 months.

Here’s their top ten frac jobs by county since January of 2015:

FSC Charts for PXD - top 10 countiesThe majority of their activity takes place in Midland (Permian), Upton (Permian) and Karnes (Eagle Ford) counties.

Pioneer has been a technological leader in many aspects of frac’ing including well selection, pressure pumping  and refrac’ing.  The inclusion of their own pressure pumping team gives them a logistical and financial advantage over 90% of E&Ps in the United States.  Even if their CEO is exaggerating, it appears as their operational costs have shined a light on investors (their stock is up 40% since January of this year) and other shale companies that the impossible is, in fact, possible.  If OPEC’s goal was to knock U.S. shale offline they may have won some battles, but companies like pxd are tenacious.  The war is far from over.

sources:
Arthur Berman at oilprice.comPioneers $2 Operating Costs: Fact or Fiction?
Rachel Aldrich at The StreetPioneer Natural Resources Stock is the ‘Chart of the Day‘”
Nicholas Chapman at Market RealistAnalyzing Pioneer Natural Resources Q216 Earnings

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

EOG is white hot!

EOG-Resourcesby Matthew Downes

Since January 20th, EOG Resources (EOG: $90.24) stock is up 50%.  We’re gonna look a bit deeper into this E&Ps activity levels and provide some additional analysis.

In the chart below we analyze their frac jobs from 2015 to current.  Since January of 2015 EOG has performed close to 700 frac jobs. It has the appearance of a roller coaster ride, but further analysis will show you that this is a company who squeezed every dollar and leveraged their technology for every single frac job. Patience and target well selection were key factors in 2015.

FSC Charts for EOG - comparisonMonth by Month:

FSC Charts for EOG - month by monthOver the same period EOG primarily worked with 4 pressure pumpers (in order):
1. Pumpco, a division of Superior Energy Services (SPN: $16.76)
2. Halliburton (HAL: $43.91)
3. Universal, a division of Patterson-UTI, Energy Inc. (PTEN: $19.77)
4. Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI: $47.71)

One more chart we thought was interesting to follow was their activity by county and state.

FSC Chart for EOG - top activity by counties

The majority of their activity takes place in Gonzales and La Salle counties in Texas.  This chart reflects activity in New Mexico, Texas, North Dakota and Wyoming.

The oil patch has seen a rash of bankruptcies over the last 24 months as the result of a downward pricing cycle. While you’d think this would be a company motto for all operators, EOG is targeting premium drilling properties with an after-tax rate rate of return of 30% which is outstanding. In a recent Forbes article they polled 18 analysts with 44% of them recommending a strong buy.

Frequently referred to as the Apple of all oil and gas, do you think EOG can continue to improve while the Oil markets fully recover?

sources
Bruce Kamich of The Street “EOG Breaks Out of an Impressive Base Pattern
Dividend Channel on Forbes “EOG Cross Above Average Analyst Target
Erwin Cifuentes of OilPrice.com “EOG Resources Boosts Fracking Plan by 30 Percent

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

The End is the Beginning for Baker Hughes

The-End-Is-the-Beginning-Baker-Hughes-Primary-Vision-Blog-7-29-2016by Matt Johnson

Over the last week or so we’ve covered the Q2 results for Halliburton (HAL: $42.77), Schlumberger (SLB: $79.05) focusing on the good, the bad, the ugly and accompanying activity measurements. Today we will center in on Baker Hughes (BHI: $46.05) which reported its Q2 results on July 28th, 2016.

Just a reminder that, Primary Vision focuses on frac data and therefore will highlight (and probably lowlight) BHIs pressure pumping activity.

The Good: As a result of the $3.5b breakup fee paid by HAL, BHI has already earmarked a 1.5b share buyback program and $1b in debt repayments. Due to recent job cuts and other internal restructuring they’re expecting their margins to improve throughout the rest of 2016.

Water Volume – BHI was #3 in water usage in 2013 and 2014.  They slipped to #4 in 2015 and round out 5th place, so far, in 2016. Just an fyi: The running order of water usage from 2013 to current (from 1st to 5th place): HAL, SLB, FTS International, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD: $157.54) & BHI (this water usage list only has Pressure pumpers, and while PXD is known as an operator they’re also vertically integrated with their own frac spreads which enables them to control costs on a whole other level.  Read here to learn more).

Proppant Volume – BHI had the 2nd highest proppant mass from 2013 to 2015.  2016 numbers are still a bit murky.

Total Number of Frac Jobs: In 2015, BHI held second place with 1,643 frac jobs.  Through one quarter of data they’ve slipped to 3rd place.  In 2016, HAL holds on to first place, one can only wonder if BHI will ever re-gain enough market share to move back to #2. See the charts below that highlights BHIs frac jobs over the last 5 quarters.

BHI comparison chart

The Bad: While the merger breakup resulted in a $3.5b payout from HAL, BHI lost crucial market share in the oilfield services space.  Revenue fell 39% to $2.3b and BHI failed to cut costs in line with their competitors.

The Ugly: BHI has laid off ~23,000 people since the beginning of 2015.  One might wonder who really suffered as a result of the failed merger.

We took a deeper look into our database of frac jobs (~120k jobs in the U.S. over the last 6 years) to Show both the Frac jobs and Frac Spreads for Baker Hughes.

BHI frac jobs month by month

Note: The Q2 2016 data is incomplete as there is a lag in the data of ~100 days

BHI forecasting chart

Note: There is a lag in the data of about ~100 days. We continue to capture new data every single day (Running Frac Spreads = blue) and compliment the data lag with our custom forecasting algorithm (Forecast = orange). If you click on the chart you will better be able to see the chart labels.

Parting Thoughts:

BHI thinks sustainable crude pricing in the $60 range is needed for operators to increase pumping activities in North America. When speaking about near-term opportunity, BHI is looking to take advantage of the 5,000 uncompleted wells nationwide. Even with the negative outlook in 2016, CEO Martin Craighead said “We are well positioned for opportunities today and when (the) market begins to recover.

Their CEO isn’t being passive either as they plan to release a host of new products focused on technology and uplift to bolser their bottom line in the second half of 2016.

It will be really interesting to follow their next few quarters as they streamline and try to re-grab the market share they lost.

sources

Amrutha Gayathri of ReutersBaker Hughes says North America recovery unlikely this year
Tess Stynes of The Wall Street Journal via Market WatchBaker Hughes Loss Widens on pricing pressure
Claire Pool of The StreetBaker Hughes Reports Loss, Paints Rosier Picture for Second Half of 2016

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

The Big Red Mothership: Halliburton 2016 Q2 Comments and more

HAL-Q2-Comments-2016

by Matt Johnson

Halliburton (HAL: $44.28) reported its 2016 second quarter results yesterday and things seem to be ok, all things considered.  The majority of this article will focus on their pressure pumping activities in the United States.

The Good:  Halliburton is #1 in multiple categories of U.S. Hydraulic Fracturing.  Their stock has increased over 30% in 2016 and has outperformed their peers.

Being #1 isn’t easy.

WATER VOLUME – HAL is #1 in total water volume (total water used) in 2013, 2014, 2015 and look to stay on top at current activity levels in 2016.
PROPPANT MASS – HAL pumped the most proppant of any service provider in the U.S. over the same three year period.  2016 looks much the same.
TOTAL NUMBER OF FRAC JOBS – In 2015 they fractured the most wells, close to 4,400 in the U.S., almost 3-1 over #2 Baker Hughes who had over 1,600.

Comparision Chart for HALThe Bad: Revenue decreased 43% year over year (Q2 2015 to Q2 2016).  They posted a loss of $3.2b this past quarter (2016 Q2).

t h e   u g l y: Due to the failed merger that was realized on May 1st, HAL had to pay a $3.5b break up fee to Baker Hughes (BHI: $45.71). Venezuela did not pay $148mm in invoices (however HAL did secure a $200mm promissory, terms were not disclosed in the filing) among other impairment charges that approached $425mm. HAL commented that they’ve laid off 1/3rd of their workforce since late 2014.

Those are some 2016 second quarter highlights, or lowlights, depending on how you look at it.  We took a deeper look into our database of frac jobs (~120k jobs in the U.S. over the last 6 years) to Show hal’s activity by Frac job and frac spread.

HAL Frac Jobs month by month
Note: The Q2 2016 data is incomplete as there is a lag in the data of ~100 days.
Forecasting Chart for HAL-1
Note: There is a lag in the data of about ~100 days. We continue to capture new data every single day (Running Frac Spreads = blue) and compliment the data lag with our custom forecasting algorithm (Forecast = orange). If you click on the chart you will better be able to see the chart labels.

Interested in learning more about the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count or what a frac spread is? More information here.

HAL REFRACS
We tracked, presented and reported on refracs in the U.S. last year at multiple conferences and quickly determined that HAL was on the forefront of refrac technology.  While producers and pumpers are still learning and realizing the benefits of refracs, HAL made significant strides in technology, technique and candidate well selection in 2015.  We think refracs are in their infancy and will provide a substantial source of revenue for producers and pumpers in the years to come.  HAL committed themselves to a long-term approach to refracs and as a result will stand tall as producers add refrac programs to their future plans.

As rig and spread counts, as well as crude prices, continue to level the market seems to be headed in a positive direction.  HAL has positioned themselves to be the lean and mean red machine that they can and should be.  They commented that even a modest uptick in the second half of 2016 would reap benefits.  Let’s hope they’re right.

Schlumberger (SLB: $80.60) reports their results today, July 21st.  BHI on July 28th.

sources
Kaya Yurieff of The StreetHalliburton (HAL) Stock Higher After Q2 Results Top Estimates
ReutersHalliburton reports $148 mln loss from Venezuela operations
David Wethe of BloombergHalliburton Sheds More Jobs, Looks to North America Recovery
Natural Gas EuropeHalliburton Reports $3.2B Loss in 2Q
Primary Vision Frac Database
Primary Vision Frac Spread Count

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings.  Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

Frac Spread Count 2.0 – June 2016

PVFSC-6-6-2016

click on the image above to see it in full size

by Jake Stevens

Have you prepared for the inevitable?

While a lot of focus is on permits and even the rig count over the last 30 or 40 years, we’ve been distributing a new metric that propelled Primary Vision into the mainstream in the summer of 2015, one we believe is the most important metric of frac activity.  We call it the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count (I might refer to it as the PVFSC or the FSC for the rest of this blog).

A quick summary of what the PVFSC is.  Simply put its a metric for the highest daily value of active frac spreads for a given week.

Ok great, but what exactly is a frac spread.  Well, lets start telling you what it isn’t.  It has nothing directly to do with natural gas prices (the crack spread), natural gas refiners (the fractionation spread) or the value gained from the sale of any natural gas liquid.

Primary Vision knows the who (pressure pumper), where, when, how many, and in most cases what the service providers are pumping, but it doesn’t stop there. We also know for what operators they are pumping for.

To summarize for every frac spread we know the following:

1) Days Active
2) Location
3) Pressure Pumper
4) Operator
5) Volumes of water, proppant, chemicals pumped

This allows us to know the number of active fleets on a given day and allows for the creation of the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count.

We give away for free, updated every week ,the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count National number.  This you can find here. Its updated by 10am every Friday.  Sign up for the free national report and you’ll get an email sent out weekly that includes the historical frac spread data plus the frac spread data for the previous week.  Use the chart and the data as you wish, all we’re asking is that you source us when using the data/image in a commercial capacity.

Its free, and yes you can get started today.

In a few days we’ll highlight what you get with the paid subscription for the Primary Vision Granular Frac Spread Count or you can reach out to us at info@pvmic.com to learn more.

 

The Primary Vision US Proppant Mass Index

Back in February we launched our US Proppant Mass Index, if you didn’t see it you should check it out here. In brief, the index measures the average proppant mass used in a frac treatment across all US wells. When we published this last, we gave you information up to and including Quarter Four / 2014.

2011 – Q1 100
2011 – Q2 99
2011 – Q3 100
2011 – Q4 98
2012 – Q1 91
2012 – Q2 89
2012 – Q3 93
2012 – Q4 102
2013 – Q1 103
2013 – Q2 106
2013 – Q3 108
2013 – Q4 117
2014 – Q1 131
2014 – Q2 145
2014 – Q3 158
2014 – Q4 172
2015 – Q1 194
2015 – Q2 209
2015 – Q3 219

As we pointed out back in February, we were seeing an increase and its continued to increased quarter over quarter since.

image001

 

We can provide a similar index based on our user’s requirements. Example Analysis: horizontal wells only, vertical wells only, directional wells only, by operator, by service company, by region or a combination of them all.

Please contact us for more information about these indexes, or if you have any questions about our capabilities, services, or products.