Pioneer’s A+ game might match OPEC

PXD-PVby Matthew Johnson

Recently, we reviewed some pressure pumpers and even took a stab at Eog Resources (EOG: $91), often called the Apple ($108.27) of U.S. shale.  If Eog Resources is the Apple of U.S. Shale then is Pioneer (PXD: $224) the Uber-equivalent?  Their CEO, Scott Sheffield, stated last week that their operating costs in the Permian Basin were close to $2 per BOE. Some have disputed this by looking deeper into their financials.  Let’s take a look at what we’re good at which is frac jobs and frac spreads.

We’ve reported 440 frac jobs since the beginning of 2015 running through Q1 2016.  PXD has shown a steady flow of work.

FSC Charts for PXD - comparisonFSC Charts for PXD - month by month

Pioneer is vertically integrated, so they do a lot of their own pressure pumping. However, we are tracking some activity with Halliburton (HAL: $43.84), Baker Hughes (BHI: $49.76) and Schlumberger (SLB: $81.20) in the last 18 months.

Here’s their top ten frac jobs by county since January of 2015:

FSC Charts for PXD - top 10 countiesThe majority of their activity takes place in Midland (Permian), Upton (Permian) and Karnes (Eagle Ford) counties.

Pioneer has been a technological leader in many aspects of frac’ing including well selection, pressure pumping  and refrac’ing.  The inclusion of their own pressure pumping team gives them a logistical and financial advantage over 90% of E&Ps in the United States.  Even if their CEO is exaggerating, it appears as their operational costs have shined a light on investors (their stock is up 40% since January of this year) and other shale companies that the impossible is, in fact, possible.  If OPEC’s goal was to knock U.S. shale offline they may have won some battles, but companies like pxd are tenacious.  The war is far from over.

sources:
Arthur Berman at oilprice.comPioneers $2 Operating Costs: Fact or Fiction?
Rachel Aldrich at The StreetPioneer Natural Resources Stock is the ‘Chart of the Day‘”
Nicholas Chapman at Market RealistAnalyzing Pioneer Natural Resources Q216 Earnings

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

The End is the Beginning for Baker Hughes

The-End-Is-the-Beginning-Baker-Hughes-Primary-Vision-Blog-7-29-2016by Matt Johnson

Over the last week or so we’ve covered the Q2 results for Halliburton (HAL: $42.77), Schlumberger (SLB: $79.05) focusing on the good, the bad, the ugly and accompanying activity measurements. Today we will center in on Baker Hughes (BHI: $46.05) which reported its Q2 results on July 28th, 2016.

Just a reminder that, Primary Vision focuses on frac data and therefore will highlight (and probably lowlight) BHIs pressure pumping activity.

The Good: As a result of the $3.5b breakup fee paid by HAL, BHI has already earmarked a 1.5b share buyback program and $1b in debt repayments. Due to recent job cuts and other internal restructuring they’re expecting their margins to improve throughout the rest of 2016.

Water Volume – BHI was #3 in water usage in 2013 and 2014.  They slipped to #4 in 2015 and round out 5th place, so far, in 2016. Just an fyi: The running order of water usage from 2013 to current (from 1st to 5th place): HAL, SLB, FTS International, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD: $157.54) & BHI (this water usage list only has Pressure pumpers, and while PXD is known as an operator they’re also vertically integrated with their own frac spreads which enables them to control costs on a whole other level.  Read here to learn more).

Proppant Volume – BHI had the 2nd highest proppant mass from 2013 to 2015.  2016 numbers are still a bit murky.

Total Number of Frac Jobs: In 2015, BHI held second place with 1,643 frac jobs.  Through one quarter of data they’ve slipped to 3rd place.  In 2016, HAL holds on to first place, one can only wonder if BHI will ever re-gain enough market share to move back to #2. See the charts below that highlights BHIs frac jobs over the last 5 quarters.

BHI comparison chart

The Bad: While the merger breakup resulted in a $3.5b payout from HAL, BHI lost crucial market share in the oilfield services space.  Revenue fell 39% to $2.3b and BHI failed to cut costs in line with their competitors.

The Ugly: BHI has laid off ~23,000 people since the beginning of 2015.  One might wonder who really suffered as a result of the failed merger.

We took a deeper look into our database of frac jobs (~120k jobs in the U.S. over the last 6 years) to Show both the Frac jobs and Frac Spreads for Baker Hughes.

BHI frac jobs month by month

Note: The Q2 2016 data is incomplete as there is a lag in the data of ~100 days

BHI forecasting chart

Note: There is a lag in the data of about ~100 days. We continue to capture new data every single day (Running Frac Spreads = blue) and compliment the data lag with our custom forecasting algorithm (Forecast = orange). If you click on the chart you will better be able to see the chart labels.

Parting Thoughts:

BHI thinks sustainable crude pricing in the $60 range is needed for operators to increase pumping activities in North America. When speaking about near-term opportunity, BHI is looking to take advantage of the 5,000 uncompleted wells nationwide. Even with the negative outlook in 2016, CEO Martin Craighead said “We are well positioned for opportunities today and when (the) market begins to recover.

Their CEO isn’t being passive either as they plan to release a host of new products focused on technology and uplift to bolser their bottom line in the second half of 2016.

It will be really interesting to follow their next few quarters as they streamline and try to re-grab the market share they lost.

sources

Amrutha Gayathri of ReutersBaker Hughes says North America recovery unlikely this year
Tess Stynes of The Wall Street Journal via Market WatchBaker Hughes Loss Widens on pricing pressure
Claire Pool of The StreetBaker Hughes Reports Loss, Paints Rosier Picture for Second Half of 2016

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

The Big Red Mothership: Halliburton 2016 Q2 Comments and more

HAL-Q2-Comments-2016

by Matt Johnson

Halliburton (HAL: $44.28) reported its 2016 second quarter results yesterday and things seem to be ok, all things considered.  The majority of this article will focus on their pressure pumping activities in the United States.

The Good:  Halliburton is #1 in multiple categories of U.S. Hydraulic Fracturing.  Their stock has increased over 30% in 2016 and has outperformed their peers.

Being #1 isn’t easy.

WATER VOLUME – HAL is #1 in total water volume (total water used) in 2013, 2014, 2015 and look to stay on top at current activity levels in 2016.
PROPPANT MASS – HAL pumped the most proppant of any service provider in the U.S. over the same three year period.  2016 looks much the same.
TOTAL NUMBER OF FRAC JOBS – In 2015 they fractured the most wells, close to 4,400 in the U.S., almost 3-1 over #2 Baker Hughes who had over 1,600.

Comparision Chart for HALThe Bad: Revenue decreased 43% year over year (Q2 2015 to Q2 2016).  They posted a loss of $3.2b this past quarter (2016 Q2).

t h e   u g l y: Due to the failed merger that was realized on May 1st, HAL had to pay a $3.5b break up fee to Baker Hughes (BHI: $45.71). Venezuela did not pay $148mm in invoices (however HAL did secure a $200mm promissory, terms were not disclosed in the filing) among other impairment charges that approached $425mm. HAL commented that they’ve laid off 1/3rd of their workforce since late 2014.

Those are some 2016 second quarter highlights, or lowlights, depending on how you look at it.  We took a deeper look into our database of frac jobs (~120k jobs in the U.S. over the last 6 years) to Show hal’s activity by Frac job and frac spread.

HAL Frac Jobs month by month
Note: The Q2 2016 data is incomplete as there is a lag in the data of ~100 days.
Forecasting Chart for HAL-1
Note: There is a lag in the data of about ~100 days. We continue to capture new data every single day (Running Frac Spreads = blue) and compliment the data lag with our custom forecasting algorithm (Forecast = orange). If you click on the chart you will better be able to see the chart labels.

Interested in learning more about the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count or what a frac spread is? More information here.

HAL REFRACS
We tracked, presented and reported on refracs in the U.S. last year at multiple conferences and quickly determined that HAL was on the forefront of refrac technology.  While producers and pumpers are still learning and realizing the benefits of refracs, HAL made significant strides in technology, technique and candidate well selection in 2015.  We think refracs are in their infancy and will provide a substantial source of revenue for producers and pumpers in the years to come.  HAL committed themselves to a long-term approach to refracs and as a result will stand tall as producers add refrac programs to their future plans.

As rig and spread counts, as well as crude prices, continue to level the market seems to be headed in a positive direction.  HAL has positioned themselves to be the lean and mean red machine that they can and should be.  They commented that even a modest uptick in the second half of 2016 would reap benefits.  Let’s hope they’re right.

Schlumberger (SLB: $80.60) reports their results today, July 21st.  BHI on July 28th.

sources
Kaya Yurieff of The StreetHalliburton (HAL) Stock Higher After Q2 Results Top Estimates
ReutersHalliburton reports $148 mln loss from Venezuela operations
David Wethe of BloombergHalliburton Sheds More Jobs, Looks to North America Recovery
Natural Gas EuropeHalliburton Reports $3.2B Loss in 2Q
Primary Vision Frac Database
Primary Vision Frac Spread Count

Disclaimer
The data presented above has a margin of error of 5-8% as a result of E&P and/or service company errors or incorrect data filings.  Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this site constitutes a solicitation or offer by Primary Vision or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

Frac Spread Count 2.0 – June 2016

PVFSC-6-6-2016

click on the image above to see it in full size

by Jake Stevens

Have you prepared for the inevitable?

While a lot of focus is on permits and even the rig count over the last 30 or 40 years, we’ve been distributing a new metric that propelled Primary Vision into the mainstream in the summer of 2015, one we believe is the most important metric of frac activity.  We call it the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count (I might refer to it as the PVFSC or the FSC for the rest of this blog).

A quick summary of what the PVFSC is.  Simply put its a metric for the highest daily value of active frac spreads for a given week.

Ok great, but what exactly is a frac spread.  Well, lets start telling you what it isn’t.  It has nothing directly to do with natural gas prices (the crack spread), natural gas refiners (the fractionation spread) or the value gained from the sale of any natural gas liquid.

Primary Vision knows the who (pressure pumper), where, when, how many, and in most cases what the service providers are pumping, but it doesn’t stop there. We also know for what operators they are pumping for.

To summarize for every frac spread we know the following:

1) Days Active
2) Location
3) Pressure Pumper
4) Operator
5) Volumes of water, proppant, chemicals pumped

This allows us to know the number of active fleets on a given day and allows for the creation of the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count.

We give away for free, updated every week ,the Primary Vision Frac Spread Count National number.  This you can find here. Its updated by 10am every Friday.  Sign up for the free national report and you’ll get an email sent out weekly that includes the historical frac spread data plus the frac spread data for the previous week.  Use the chart and the data as you wish, all we’re asking is that you source us when using the data/image in a commercial capacity.

Its free, and yes you can get started today.

In a few days we’ll highlight what you get with the paid subscription for the Primary Vision Granular Frac Spread Count or you can reach out to us at info@pvmic.com to learn more.

 

A bit on Sales Strategy and Etiquette

by Erik Freitag and Matt Johnson

The VP of Sales and the National Account Manager walk into a bar…

​Erik and I have made a call, sent an email and told a bad joke or two in our lifetimes. Today we want to chat about sales strategy and a bit of etiquette that can help you along the way of pushing a lead to a qualified prospect.

Always have a signature in your email. (both the sales person and the lead/prospect)

Matt: I see a lot of higher ups ignore this tactic either on purpose because they don’t want to disclose their information or because they simply don’t know how to set it up. Obviously this helps the sales person gather information but what if the lead/prospect wants to call you right then and there? I better have my phone number listed in my signature or the body of the email.

Erik: It’s my belief that this is crucial for the sales rep. I’ve also seen leads/prospects remove their contact info from the email chain but at some point, they have usually sent it to us in one way or another. This is why it is KEY to capture the critical contact info from our leads/prospects and immediately transfer it to our CRM database.

How many times is enough to reach out cold to someone new? sales person to lead

Erik: There are various opinions and some of the tactics may change depending on product/industry/person trying to contact. The important factor here is to be direct & clear with voice messages and/or emails. As in any sale, there is a fine line between persistence and overkill. The latter obviously becomes annoying to our prospect and therefore is a poor strategy. I think multiple attempts (3-4) to contact a lead/prospect over an initial 2 week period is more than enough to create an interest or to be ignored and move on.

Matt: A lot of studies have been done on this stuff. I mostly like to reach out 4 different ways to one person and typically wait about 3 months before re-emailing unless you have a dialog going. I had one guy reach out to me 15 different times about one product that we gracefully declined using. It didn’t stop him and now I’m guaranteed to not buy a single thing from his company. Some leads simply die, and when they tell you that they are not interested it’s so simple to respect that. This is sales tact 101.

What tips can help for qualifying someone via first reach phone/email? sales person to lead/prospect

Matt: Often times we’re asked for samples and/or something custom specific to get a “free” answer to a question. I’ve learned the hard way by being eager early on especially when you can pre-qualify someone’s job title, function or the size of the company. Do not send samples without having some type of back and forth dialog. See how quickly they respond and note the time that they respond to your emails. This is key to pre-qualifying someone.

A good trick I learned is when a lead or prospect promises they’ll do something, that they do it. If they say “I’ll call you back soon” or “Lets touch base next week when I’m back in the office” its your job as the salesperson to do that following up. If they don’t reply soon or touch base after a re-reach its a good indicator for you to concentrate on others.

Erik: I personally feel like in all industry, the biggest objection is “please send me info” or “please send me a sample” It is an easy way to get a sales rep off the phone and also alleviates the prospect from having to say “NO.” However, it’s tricky because to close deals, these things often must happen. Therefore, we must pay attention to when they request a sample, how detailed their request is, and what action item they plan to take with that sample. Lastly, we need to ask when it’s appropriate to follow up on that sample for feedback.

What are some things that annoy you when emailing a person?

​Matt: I am very conscious of annoying people (or better worded “not trying to annoy people”). If you get zero response (after 3-4 mixed attempts) from someone I will just push a task, in my crm, to touch base with them on a new product down the road. Or maybe if I know I’m going to be in their area for a conference/event or we were written up somewhere that might interest them I might re-pop them to see if they’re interested.

A big thing, and maybe was the original focus of this blog was to talk about the reply to a reply.

Here is an example:

Hi X,

I am writing to you because you said that I should reach back to you at this time to discuss xyz.

X responds:

Hi Matt,

I’m out of the office this week, but I promise to reach back to you next week.  

I (Matt) does NOT reply here with a simple “ok thanks”. Those emails are time wasters and add up to nothing getting done in the long run. I simply set a task to reach back to that person “next week”. Do the reminding and do the prodding for the lead/prospect.

Point of the story: Don’t reply with “ok thanks” emails. Just setup a task in your crm for them and if they forget or don’t have time for you (or don’t make time for you) after a couple tries that is a good indicator of a lead, who in my opinion, who is either too busy, doesn’t care about your product, or you need to come at them another way to connect with them (sell better).

Erik: I think 3-4 attempts should be enough to provoke an interest or move on. Again, depending on the value of the target, you may want to go further before moving on. Also, it’s important to look for “extra” reach opportunities to all prospects if you read an article or see them I the news.

Communication in most forms today is abbreviated and most professionals feel “busy” all the time and are therefore rushed and short. Having said that, some great rapport can be created using “thank you, how was your weekend, talk to you next week ,etc etc. This is where personality matching can come in handy. A prospect that tends to be more apt to elaborate or ask personal questions, let’s call them a “social prospect,” may react better to small talk and chatter versus a “driver” prospect that just wants info pertaining to business.

Matt’s Parting Thoughts – Erik and I deal mostly with B2B sales. The oil and gas business is built on an old guard of long standing relationships. Bringing a future-forward product to the market like big data and having very few friends in the business beforehand made us think very deeply about how we approach a new customer, how we bring them through the process and how manage the account in post-sale (where I think Primary Vision shines). We always are talking about customers and look to advance some of our open and lining techniques in a tough market place.

Erik’s Parting Thoughts:  We find marketing is so important as a lead that comes to you has a much higher rate of conversion.  Having said that, it is much easier said than done.  When sales reps are on the “hunt” to create business, it’s important to execute a strategy and pay attention to the process.  Making calls simply to make calls will get you nowhere.  Be direct, confident, and persistent, but recognize that certain prospects are not a good target and move on from them cordially.

Introducing The Primary Vision US Proppant Mass Index

We are pleased to announce the launch of the Primary Vision US Proppant Mass Index. This index will measure the average proppant mass used in a frac treatment in the United States across all wells.

2011 – Q1 100
2011 – Q2 99
2011 – Q3 100
2011 – Q4 98
2012 – Q1 91
2012 – Q2 89
2012 – Q3 93
2012 – Q4 102
2013 – Q1 103
2013 – Q2 106
2013 – Q3 108
2013 – Q4 117
2014 – Q1 131
2014 – Q2 145
2014 – Q3 158
2014 – Q4 172

Early data for 2015 – Q1 is showing an increase. We will see if that continues.

US Proppant Mass Index - Feb 2015

Proppant Trends in the United States

We can provide a similar index based on our user’s requirements. Example Analysis: horizontal wells only, vertical wells only, directional wells only, by operator, by service company, by region.

Please contact us for more information about these indexes, or if you have any questions about our capabilities, services, or products.